Are the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement? President Trump had only one possibility for a quick retreat - but it would be drama...
Are the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement? President Trump had only one possibility for a quick retreat - but it would be dramatic. Washington has already initiated the end of its climate protection payments to the Uno.
The Bibliothèque Solvay is a jewel of Brussels style Nouveau architecture, situated on a picturesque hillside in the Leopoldspark, just a stone's throw away from the heart of the European Union. The view of the city is splendid, the walls of the books in the interior are filled with the touch of old knowledge.
Last week, however, another wind blew through the venerable halls: AKRE, an organization of European conservatives and legalists from the British Tories to the Polish PiS party, holds an environmental "summit". Demonstrators have built up in front of the library. "Make the Planet Great Again" is on their signs. Everyone who goes by, they sound with "Climate Shame" calls. When Myron Ebell arrives, the noise level rises massively. "Shame! Shame!"
Ebell is one of the most famous climate change deniers in the United States. Global warming does not exist for him, he regards environmental protection as a tool "urban eco-imperialists". They were trying to enforce "government control and the rule of the experts", says Ebell in his opening speech. This "climate-industrial complex" has "all power, money and influence". Climate researchers, on the other hand, have only theoretical knowledge. One should better rely on people who have "practical experience" with the weather.
Paralyze from the inside
Just this man has made Donald Trump head of the transition team at the environmental agency Epa. Until a few days ago, Ebell was responsible for the reorientation of the agency, which he had been fighting for many years. His recommendation: the workforce of the Epa is to shrink from 15,000 to 5000 employees, the budget to four billion dollars in half. What remains of the EP is, according to Trumps wishes, the lawyer Scott Pruitt - also he is a climate change denying the Epa over years with complaints.
Will the US now also withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, as Trump promised? First signs tend to be against it. They allow Washington to try to paralyze the United Nations' climate protection process.
By the end of January, the Republicans had largely ignored the drafting of a bill that would ban all US payments to the IPCC, the UNFCCC convention UNFCCC and the Green Climate Fund (GFC). The latter is intended to help poorer countries deal with the consequences of warming. Since the Republicans are the majority in both Chambers of Congress, Trump is likely to sign the bill soon.
"Trump could then loudly announce that he turns the moneykeepers the money tap," says Reimund Schwarze, Head of Department for climate economics at the Helmholtz Center in Leipzig. "At the same time, he could renegotiate the Paris agreement from the inside position."
In any case, a withdrawal would not be feasible. The Paris Treaty states that the parties will not be able to adopt the agreement within three years. Another year would pass before the withdrawal took effect. Until then, the next US election is on - and Trump might not be president any more.
Actual retreat
However, there would be an abbreviation: the withdrawal from the UN climate process. He would be immediately possible and effective in a year - and he would free Trump from the Paris agreement. "This would be a dramatic act that would shatter the foundations of international environmental policy," says Schwarze. "The credibility of the US would also be seriously damaged." Therefore, such a step is unlikely.
This is what Klaus Dingwerth from the Swiss University of St. Gallen thinks. "The United States will probably not withdraw from the Paris agreement under international law - but they will actually do it." He could not imagine that a US government under Trump will adhere to their commitments to climate protection.
However, the Paris agreement would probably be dead, because it is based on mutual promises to protect the climate and, above all, to respect them. Penalties for violations are not provided for. If a party withdraws - and more importantly as important as the US - other major climate change nations, such as China or India, are no longer bound by the agreement. Trump would have achieved what he promised on Twitter in January 2014:
Political scientist Dingwerth sees only one possibility that international climate protection will survive: Europe and China will continue without the US "because they come to the conclusion that the reduction of greenhouse gases and the promotion of green energies is also useful without the US".
This, however, is likely to lead to anger in the world trade - for the US would have competitive advantages in many fields without climate protection efforts. Other states would then have to levy CO2 penalties on US products. Irony of the story: Just a few years ago the US threatened the Chinese with such measures. "All of this poses a great potential for conflict for the world trade," says Dingwerth.
